CDNA
CareDx, Inc
$62.41
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 680.4% above fair value
You pay
$62.41
Bear
$6.24
Fair
$8.00
Bull
$9.92
Bear
$6.24
-90.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$8.00
-87.2%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$9.92
-84.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
308.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
48.8%
vs 14.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$62.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $8.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $62.25 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions