CDNA
CareDx, Inc
$50.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 531.3% above fair value
You pay
$50.48
Bear
$6.24
Fair
$8.00
Bull
$9.92
Bear
$6.24
-87.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$8.00
-84.2%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$9.92
-80.3%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.6%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
246.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
45.6%
vs 14.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$56.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
86%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $8.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $56.67 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions