CDLR
Cadeler A/S
$25.11
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 63.8% above fair value
You pay
$25.11
Bear
$11.92
Fair
$15.33
Bull
$18.73
Bear
$11.92
-52.5%
$0.85 × 14x
Fair
$15.33
-39.0%
$0.85 × 18x
Bull
$18.73
-25.4%
$0.85 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
0.85$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.85)
Implied Market Multiple
29.5x
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.85 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $15.33 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.5x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Recent profits ($3.41/share) are 300% above the mid-cycle average ($0.85). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.
This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1205 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing