CCS
Century Communities, Inc.
$57.44
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 69.3% below fair value
You pay
$57.44
Bear
$145.60
Fair
$187.20
Bull
$228.80
Bear
$145.60
+153.5%
$10.40 × 14x
Fair
$187.20
+225.9%
$10.40 × 18x
Bull
$228.80
+298.3%
$10.40 × 22x
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
10.4$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($10.40)
Implied Market Multiple
5.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$60.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
209%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $10.40 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $187.20 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 0.6x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 0.6x is below the typical low point. This could be a bargain, but check whether asset write-downs are coming.
Wall Street's average price target is $60.67 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 209% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing