CCL
Carnival Corporation & plc
$26.61
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.4% below fair value
You pay
$26.61
Bear
$53.79
Fair
$67.23
Bull
$80.68
Bear
$53.79
+102.1%
$3.59 × 18x P/E
Fair
$67.23
+152.7%
$3.59 × 22x P/E
Bull
$80.68
+203.2%
$3.59 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.64 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.23 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 78%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.64 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 127% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples