CCL
Carnival Corporation & plc
$25.98
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.4% below fair value
You pay
$25.98
Bear
$53.92
Fair
$67.39
Bull
$80.87
Bear
$53.92
+107.5%
$3.59 × 18x P/E
Fair
$67.39
+159.4%
$3.59 × 22x P/E
Bull
$80.87
+211.3%
$3.59 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
7.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $36.17 from 47 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.39 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 78%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.17 (from 47 analysts). Our estimate is 123% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples