CCL
Carnival Corporation & plc
$26.48
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.7% below fair value
You pay
$26.48
Bear
$36.36
Fair
$45.45
Bull
$54.54
Bear
$36.36
+37.3%
$2.02 × 18x P/E
Fair
$45.45
+71.6%
$2.02 × 22x P/E
Bull
$54.54
+106.0%
$2.02 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
2.02$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (49 analysts)
$33.16
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.02, the base-case value is $45.45 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $33.16 (from 49 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples