CCK
Crown Holdings, Inc.
$96.71
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.5% below fair value
You pay
$96.71
Bear
$87.38
Fair
$109.23
Bull
$131.07
Bear
$87.38
-9.7%
$7.03 × 12x P/E
Fair
$109.23
+12.9%
$7.03 × 15x P/E
Bull
$131.07
+35.5%
$7.03 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $120.50 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.23 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $525.21 (above our primary estimate by 398%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples