CCK
Crown Holdings, Inc.
$109.14
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.0% above fair value
You pay
$109.14
Bear
$76.56
Fair
$95.70
Bull
$114.84
Bear
$76.56
-29.9%
$6.38 × 12x P/E
Fair
$95.70
-12.3%
$6.38 × 15x P/E
Bull
$114.84
+5.2%
$6.38 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.38$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$125.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.38, the base-case value is $95.70 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples