CCCS
CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.
$8.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 46.3% above fair value
You pay
$8.75
Bear
$4.35
Fair
$5.98
Bull
$7.60
Bear
$4.35
-50.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.98
-31.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$7.60
-13.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
45.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.14 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.98 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42571% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.14 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions