CCCS
CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.
$8.75
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 36.1% above fair value
You pay
$8.75
Bear
$4.68
Fair
$6.43
Bull
$8.18
Bear
$4.68
-46.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$6.43
-26.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$8.18
-6.5%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
31.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.9%
vs 10.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$12.14
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.43 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42571% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $12.14 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions