CCC
CCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.
$7.67
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 167.3% above fair value
You pay
$7.67
Bear
$1.50
Fair
$2.87
Bull
$4.24
Bear
$1.50
-80.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$2.87
-62.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$4.24
-44.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (11% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
44.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.8%
vs 10.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$7.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
59%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2.87 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 42571% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.00 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions