CCBG
Capital City Bank Group, Inc.
$49.62
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.7% below fair value
You pay
$49.62
Bear
$68.77
Fair
$96.68
Bull
$96.68
Bear
$68.77
+38.6%
ROTCE 10.0% → 2.85x TBV
Fair
$96.68
+94.8%
ROTCE 13.3% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$96.68
+94.8%
ROTCE 15.3% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.83x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $49.50 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.68 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 119% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly