CCBG
Capital City Bank Group, Inc.
$51.18
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.8% below fair value
You pay
$51.18
Bear
$74.18
Fair
$108.40
Bull
$108.40
Bear
$74.18
+44.9%
ROTCE 10.0% → 2.74x TBV
Fair
$108.40
+111.8%
ROTCE 13.3% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$108.40
+111.8%
ROTCE 15.3% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.3%
6.2%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.89x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$49.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
119%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.3% vs. 6.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $27.10 tangible book, implying $108.40 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $49.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 119% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly