CBZ
CBIZ, Inc.
$54.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 88.4% above fair value
You pay
$54.84
Bear
$22.17
Fair
$29.10
Bull
$35.80
Bear
$22.17
-59.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$29.10
-46.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$35.80
-34.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
4.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
20.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.2%
vs 4.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$44.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $29.10 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $44.75 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions