CBZ
CBIZ, Inc.
$37.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 317.3% above fair value
You pay
$37.79
Bear
$4.41
Fair
$9.06
Bull
$13.54
Bear
$4.41
-88.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$9.06
-76.0%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$13.54
-64.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
24.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.6%
vs 4.6% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $9.06 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions