CBRS
Cerebras Systems Inc.
$196.13
Distressed or Transitioning
72%
Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6278.2% above fair value
You pay
$196.13
Bear
$2.05
Fair
$3.07
Bull
$4.10
Bear
$2.05
-99.0%
Same EPS, market stays skeptical at 5x
Fair
$3.07
-98.4%
Same EPS, 8x depressed multiple
Bull
$4.10
-97.9%
Same EPS, multiple re-rates to 10x
Adjust Assumptions
7.5x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
478.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$300.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
99%
Summary
Stock is 49% below 52-week high. Using current EPS at a 8x depressed multiple, base-case value is $3.07. Wide scenario range: $2.05–$4.10.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $300.50 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case