CBRL
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store
$56.40
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.9% above fair value
You pay
$56.02
Bear
$43.15
Fair
$52.39
Bull
$61.64
Bear
$43.15
-23.0%
$3.08 × 14x P/E
Fair
$52.39
-6.5%
$3.08 × 17x P/E
Bull
$61.64
+10.0%
$3.08 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
3.08$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$53.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.08, the base-case value is $52.39 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 120%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples