CBRE
CBRE Group, Inc.
$128.16
Stable Earnings Power
75%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 87.8% above fair value
You pay
$128.16
Bear
$54.61
Fair
$68.26
Bull
$81.91
Bear
$54.61
-57.4%
$3.85 × 14x P/E
Fair
$68.26
-46.7%
$3.85 × 18x P/E
Bull
$81.91
-36.1%
$3.85 × 21x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.7x
3.85$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (20 analysts)
$179.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
62%
Summary
Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.85, the base-case value is $68.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $179.00 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 62% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples