CBRE
CBRE Group, Inc.
$147.78
Stable Earnings Power
75%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.6% above fair value
You pay
$147.78
Bear
$85.30
Fair
$106.64
Bull
$127.95
Bear
$85.30
-42.3%
$4.66 × 14x P/E
Fair
$106.64
-27.8%
$4.66 × 18x P/E
Bull
$127.95
-13.4%
$4.66 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
31.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $178.50 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.64 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $178.50 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 54% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples