CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
$285.07
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 41.4% above fair value
You pay
$285.07
Bear
$141.12
Fair
$201.60
Bull
$262.09
Bear
$141.12
-50.5%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$201.60
-29.3%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$262.09
-8.1%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (159.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
43.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $306.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $201.60 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $306.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly