CBOE
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
$294.08
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 87.5% above fair value
You pay
$294.08
Bear
$109.80
Fair
$156.86
Bull
$203.92
Bear
$109.80
-62.7%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$156.86
-46.7%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$203.92
-30.7%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
159.3%
6.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (159.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
44.57x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$310.43
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
With ROTCE of 159.3% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $6.60 tangible book, implying $156.86 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $310.43 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly