CBOE Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
$357.35
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 75.1% above fair value

You pay $357.35
Bear $142.88
Fair $204.12
Bull $265.36
Bear $142.88 -60.0% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair $204.12 -42.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull $265.36 -25.7% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (159.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 54.15x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $314.40 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $204.12 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $314.40 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly