CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
$51.53
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.3% below fair value
You pay
$51.53
Bear
$31.28
Fair
$63.88
Bull
$108.34
Bear
$31.28
-39.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$63.88
+24.0%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$108.34
+110.2%
31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
23.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
42.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.0%
vs 23.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$88.28
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $63.88 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 13% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $88.28 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions