CAVA
CAVA Group, Inc.
$55.88
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.8% below fair value
You pay
$55.88
Bear
$31.37
Fair
$64.06
Bull
$108.65
Bear
$31.37
-43.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$64.06
+14.6%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$108.65
+94.4%
31% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
23.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (24% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
45.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.1%
vs 23.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$90.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 24% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $64.06 per share.
Warnings
This company spends 13% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.
Wall Street's average price target is $90.71 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions