CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
$861.63
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 57.5% above fair value
You pay
$861.63
Bear
$478.78
Fair
$547.17
Bull
$615.57
Bear
$478.78
-44.4%
$19.16 × 19x P/E
Fair
$547.17
-36.5%
$19.16 × 22x P/E
Bull
$615.57
-28.6%
$19.16 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
45.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $944.23 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $547.17 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $944.23 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples