CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
$703.93
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 69.7% above fair value
You pay
$703.93
Bear
$362.97
Fair
$414.82
Bull
$466.67
Bear
$362.97
-48.4%
$19.16 × 19x P/E
Fair
$414.82
-41.1%
$19.16 × 22x P/E
Bull
$466.67
-33.7%
$19.16 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.7x
19.16$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.7x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$817.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
49%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $19.16, the base-case value is $414.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $817.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples