CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
$825.02
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 113.7% above fair value
You pay
$825.02
Bear
$337.73
Fair
$385.99
Bull
$434.22
Bear
$337.73
-59.1%
$14.82 × 17x P/E
Fair
$385.99
-53.2%
$14.82 × 19x P/E
Bull
$434.22
-47.4%
$14.82 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
55.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $701.60 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $385.99 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $701.60 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples