CASH
Pathward Financial, Inc.
$82.74
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 32.1% below fair value
You pay
$82.74
Bear
$95.92
Fair
$121.82
Bull
$158.37
Bear
$95.92
+15.9%
ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$121.82
+47.2%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$158.37
+91.4%
ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (33.9%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.19x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.00 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $121.82 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $82.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 61% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly