CART
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)
$41.22
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.6% below fair value
You pay
$41.22
Bear
$37.02
Fair
$42.31
Bull
$47.61
Bear
$37.02
-10.2%
$1.62 × 21x P/E
Fair
$42.31
+2.6%
$1.62 × 24x P/E
Bull
$47.61
+15.5%
$1.62 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
25.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.30 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $52.30 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples