CART
Maplebear Inc.
$49.77
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.2% below fair value
You pay
$49.77
Bear
$59.51
Fair
$94.19
Bull
$133.67
Bear
$59.51
+19.6%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$94.19
+89.3%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$133.67
+168.6%
21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
17.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.0%
vs 15.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$57.13
Divergence from AlphaVal
65%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $94.19 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 79% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $57.13 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions