CART
Maplebear Inc.
$42.21
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.2% below fair value
You pay
$42.21
Bear
$50.58
Fair
$75.61
Bull
$102.83
Bear
$50.58
+19.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$75.61
+79.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$102.83
+143.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.5%
vs 14.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.70 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.61 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 79% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.70 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions