CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
$69.91
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 59.7% above fair value
You pay
$69.91
Bear
$35.01
Fair
$43.77
Bull
$52.52
Bear
$35.01
-49.9%
$2.36 × 12x P/E
Fair
$43.77
-37.4%
$2.36 × 15x P/E
Bull
$52.52
-24.9%
$2.36 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
29.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.86 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.77 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 39%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.86 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples