CARR
Carrier Global Corporation
$55.56
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.8% above fair value
You pay
$55.56
Bear
$29.66
Fair
$37.08
Bull
$44.50
Bear
$29.66
-46.6%
$2.47 × 12x P/E
Fair
$37.08
-33.3%
$2.47 × 15x P/E
Bull
$44.50
-19.9%
$2.47 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.47$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (26 analysts)
$71.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
48%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.47, the base-case value is $37.08 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 45%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.00 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples