CAR
Avis Budget Group, Inc.
$101.86
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 75.6% below fair value
You pay
$101.86
Bear
$333.81
Fair
$417.26
Bull
$500.72
Bear
$333.81
+227.7%
$19.44 × 17x P/E
Fair
$417.26
+309.6%
$19.44 × 21x P/E
Bull
$500.72
+391.6%
$19.44 × 26x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
19.44$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$129.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
223%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $19.44, the base-case value is $417.26 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $129.17 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 223% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 88% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples