CALX
Calix, Inc.
$35.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 46.2% above fair value
You pay
$35.54
Bear
$18.45
Fair
$24.30
Bull
$30.48
Bear
$18.45
-48.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$24.30
-31.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$30.48
-14.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
37.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.5%
vs 13.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$57.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
57%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.30 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 492% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $57.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions