CALX
Calix, Inc.
$39.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.0% above fair value
You pay
$39.23
Bear
$26.33
Fair
$35.33
Bull
$44.87
Bear
$26.33
-32.9%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$35.33
-9.9%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$44.87
+14.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
43.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $61.00 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.33 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 492% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $61.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions