CALM
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
$77.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 87.7% below fair value
You pay
$77.01
Bear
$403.26
Fair
$627.59
Bull
$880.56
Bear
$403.26
+423.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$627.59
+714.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$880.56
+1043.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
43%
Implied Market Multiple
2.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $627.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $85.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 798% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions