CALM
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
$62.60
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 34.1% below fair value
You pay
$62.60
Bear
$75.94
Fair
$94.92
Bull
$113.91
Bear
$75.94
+21.3%
$6.63 × 11x P/E
Fair
$94.92
+51.6%
$6.63 × 14x P/E
Bull
$113.91
+82.0%
$6.63 × 17x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
14.3x
6.63$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$81.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
Applying a 14x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.63, the base-case value is $94.92 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples