CALM
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
$90.32
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.2% below fair value
You pay
$90.32
Bear
$77.85
Fair
$97.30
Bull
$116.77
Bear
$77.85
-13.8%
$6.75 × 11x P/E
Fair
$97.30
+7.7%
$6.75 × 14x P/E
Bull
$116.77
+29.3%
$6.75 × 17x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $100.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.30 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples