CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
$61.14
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.9% below fair value
You pay
$61.14
Bear
$50.80
Fair
$61.68
Bull
$72.57
Bear
$50.80
-16.9%
$3.53 × 14x P/E
Fair
$61.68
+0.9%
$3.53 × 17x P/E
Bull
$72.57
+18.7%
$3.53 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.50 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.68 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples