CAI
Caris Life Sciences, Inc.
$32.44
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 319.8% above fair value
You pay
$32.44
Bear
$5.56
Fair
$7.73
Bull
$10.10
Bear
$5.56
-82.9%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$7.73
-76.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$10.10
-68.9%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
147.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
35.8%
vs 14.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$27.25
Divergence from AlphaVal
72%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $7.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $27.25 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions