CAH Cardinal Health, Inc.
$200.68
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 32.0% above fair value

You pay $200.68
Bear $121.65
Fair $152.06
Bull $182.48
Bear $121.65 -39.4% $7.24 × 12x P/E
Fair $152.06 -24.2% $7.24 × 15x P/E
Bull $182.48 -9.1% $7.24 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $253.38 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $152.06 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $29.55 (below our primary estimate by 73%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $253.38 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples