CAG
Conagra Brands, Inc.
$14.61
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.0% below fair value
You pay
$14.61
Bear
$22.71
Fair
$27.57
Bull
$32.44
Bear
$22.71
+55.4%
$1.62 × 14x P/E
Fair
$27.57
+88.7%
$1.62 × 17x P/E
Bull
$32.44
+122.0%
$1.62 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
1.62$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$14.10
Divergence from AlphaVal
96%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.62, the base-case value is $27.57 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.10 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 96% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples