CACI
CACI International Inc
$501.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.8% above fair value
You pay
$501.35
Bear
$238.55
Fair
$392.18
Bull
$543.16
Bear
$238.55
-52.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$392.18
-21.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$543.16
+8.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
32.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $725.50 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $392.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $725.50 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions