CACI
CACI International Inc
$631.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.2% above fair value
You pay
$631.24
Bear
$401.93
Fair
$617.68
Bull
$828.60
Bear
$401.93
-36.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$617.68
-2.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$828.60
+31.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
21.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.1%
vs 9.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$722.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $617.68 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions