CACI
CACI International Inc
$477.97
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.3% above fair value
You pay
$477.97
Bear
$232.00
Fair
$381.40
Bull
$528.24
Bear
$232.00
-51.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$381.40
-20.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$528.24
+10.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
31.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.1%
vs 10.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $682.40 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $381.40 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $682.40 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions