CACI
CACI International Inc
$614.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.5% below fair value
You pay
$614.31
Bear
$401.77
Fair
$617.45
Bull
$828.29
Bear
$401.77
-34.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$617.45
+0.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$828.29
+34.8%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
21.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.8%
vs 9.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$730.86
Divergence from AlphaVal
16%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $617.45 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions