CACC
Credit Acceptance Corporation
$545.04
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 67.1% below fair value
You pay
$545.04
Bear
$1,176.78
Fair
$1,654.29
Bull
$2,103.14
Bear
$1,176.78
+115.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$1,654.29
+203.5%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$2,103.14
+285.9%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.5%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
8.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-1.4%
vs 8.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$500.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
231%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1654.29 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $500.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 231% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions