CAC
Camden National Corp.
$53.73
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 28.9% below fair value
You pay
$53.73
Bear
$48.26
Fair
$75.58
Bull
$91.97
Bear
$48.26
-10.2%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.74x TBV
Fair
$75.58
+40.7%
ROTCE 13.0% → 2.73x TBV
Bull
$91.97
+71.2%
ROTCE 14.9% → 3.32x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.81x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.67 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.58 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $29.43 (64% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.67 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 51% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly