CAC
Camden National Corp.
$55.49
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.4% below fair value
You pay
$55.49
Bear
$50.16
Fair
$78.56
Bull
$95.60
Bear
$50.16
-9.6%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.69x TBV
Fair
$78.56
+41.6%
ROTCE 13.0% → 2.64x TBV
Bull
$95.60
+72.3%
ROTCE 14.9% → 3.22x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.0%
7.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (7.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.87x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$59.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
33%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.0% vs. 7.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.64x on $29.71 tangible book, implying $78.56 per share. DDM cross-check: $26.46.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $26.46 (66% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $59.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly