CAC
Camden National Corp.
$56.36
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 30.8% below fair value
You pay
$56.36
Bear
$52.02
Fair
$81.47
Bull
$99.14
Bear
$52.02
-7.7%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.75x TBV
Fair
$81.47
+44.6%
ROTCE 13.0% → 2.74x TBV
Bull
$99.14
+75.9%
ROTCE 14.9% → 3.34x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.0%
7.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$56.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
44%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.0% vs. 7.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.74x on $29.71 tangible book, implying $81.47 per share. DDM cross-check: $29.52.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $29.52 (64% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $56.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 44% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly