CAC
Camden National Corporation
$49.32
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.6% below fair value
You pay
$49.32
Bear
$47.42
Fair
$74.27
Bull
$90.39
Bear
$47.42
-3.8%
ROTCE 9.7% → 1.71x TBV
Fair
$74.27
+50.6%
ROTCE 13.0% → 2.68x TBV
Bull
$90.39
+83.3%
ROTCE 14.9% → 3.26x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (7.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.66x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $53.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.27 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $32.19 (60% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 50% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly