BZ
Kanzhun Limited
$15.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.5% below fair value
You pay
$15.82
Bear
$29.07
Fair
$44.54
Bull
$62.60
Bear
$29.07
+83.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$44.54
+181.6%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$62.60
+295.7%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
7.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-4.2%
vs 16.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.71 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.54 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $21.71 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 131% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1479 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions