BZ
Kanzhun Limited
$16.55
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 67.5% below fair value
You pay
$16.55
Bear
$33.21
Fair
$50.89
Bull
$71.52
Bear
$33.21
+100.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$50.89
+207.5%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$71.52
+332.2%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
8.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.4%
vs 16.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
199%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $50.89 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 33% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 199% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1498 USD per CNY.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions