BYRN
Byrna Technologies Inc.
$4.52
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 48.6% below fair value
You pay
$4.52
Bear
$7.20
Fair
$8.80
Bull
$10.40
Bear
$7.20
+59.3%
$0.40 × 18x
Fair
$8.80
+94.7%
$0.40 × 22x
Bull
$10.40
+130.1%
$0.40 × 26x
Adjust Assumptions
22.0x
0.4$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.40)
Implied Market Multiple
11.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$4.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
120%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.40 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $8.80 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 1.7x.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $4.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 120% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 84% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing