BXSL
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund
$23.50
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.2% below fair value
You pay
$23.50
Bear
$44.66
Fair
$63.80
Bull
$82.94
Bear
$44.66
+90.0%
ROTCE 6.8% → 1.02x TBV
Fair
$63.80
+171.5%
ROTCE 9.0% → 1.85x TBV
Bull
$82.94
+252.9%
ROTCE 10.4% → 2.35x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.0%
6.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.88x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$25.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
150%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.0% vs. 6.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.85x on $26.84 tangible book, implying $63.80 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $25.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 150% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly