BXP BXP, Inc.
$60.29
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 24.3% below fair value

You pay $60.29
Bear $62.57
Fair $79.64
Bull $96.71
Bear $62.57 +3.8% $7.42 FFO × 10x
Fair $79.64 +32.1% $7.42 FFO × 13x
Bull $96.71 +60.4% $7.42 FFO × 16x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($7.42) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.1x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.70 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.64 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $57.40 (32% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $67.70 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 25% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify