BX
Blackstone Inc.
$126.89
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 14.5% above fair value
You pay
$126.89
Bear
$77.58
Fair
$110.84
Bull
$144.10
Bear
$77.58
-38.9%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.78x TBV
Fair
$110.84
-12.6%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$144.10
+13.6%
ROTCE 30.0% → 2.89x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (45.4%) vs. cost of equity (13.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
14.96x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $149.86 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $110.84 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $44.93 (52% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $149.86 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly