BX
Blackstone Inc.
$118.51
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 8.1% above fair value
You pay
$118.51
Bear
$76.76
Fair
$109.66
Bull
$142.57
Bear
$76.76
-35.2%
ROTCE 20.0% → 1.72x TBV
Fair
$109.66
-7.5%
ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$142.57
+20.3%
ROTCE 30.0% → 2.80x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (45.4%) vs. cost of equity (13.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
13.97x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $156.29 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.66 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $43.78 (53% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $156.29 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly