BWMN
Bowman Consulting Group Ltd.
$42.58
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 28.1% above fair value
You pay
$42.58
Bear
$15.56
Fair
$33.24
Bull
$54.91
Bear
$15.56
-63.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$33.24
-21.9%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$54.91
+29.0%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
19.2%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
45.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.0%
vs 19.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
23%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 19% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $33.24 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 153% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions