BWMN
Bowman Consulting Group Ltd.
$27.07
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.1% below fair value
You pay
$27.07
Bear
$17.88
Fair
$38.19
Bull
$63.09
Bear
$17.88
-34.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$38.19
+41.1%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$63.09
+133.1%
25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (19% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
31.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.0%
vs 19.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.19 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 153% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions