BWAY
BrainsWay Ltd.
$12.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.7% below fair value
You pay
$12.12
Bear
$14.31
Fair
$26.72
Bull
$43.27
Bear
$14.31
+18.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$26.72
+120.6%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$43.27
+257.2%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
23.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.0%
vs 22.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$19.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
37%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions