BW Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.
$19.04
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 160.1% above fair value

You pay $19.04
Bear $5.86
Fair $7.32
Bull $8.78
Bear $5.86 -69.2% $0.26 × 12x P/E
Fair $7.32 -61.6% $0.26 × 15x P/E
Bull $8.78 -53.9% $0.26 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 73.2x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.32 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples