BVN
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.
$30.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.8% below fair value
You pay
$30.38
Bear
$24.09
Fair
$41.51
Bull
$62.26
Bear
$24.09
-20.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$41.51
+36.6%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$62.26
+104.9%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
27.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.3%
vs 17.7% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.25 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $41.51 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions