BVN
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.
$33.46
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.1% above fair value
You pay
$33.46
Bear
$22.07
Fair
$33.43
Bull
$45.63
Bear
$22.07
-34.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$33.43
-0.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$45.63
+36.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
30.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $43.50 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions