BV BrightView Holdings, Inc.
$14.07
Stable Earnings Power 40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 35.7% above fair value

You pay $14.07
Bear $8.30
Fair $10.37
Bull $12.44
Bear $8.30 -41.0% $0.62 × 12x P/E
Fair $10.37 -26.3% $0.62 × 15x P/E
Bull $12.44 -11.6% $0.62 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.7x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.70 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.37 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $14.70 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 37% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples