BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
$370.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 215.1% above fair value
You pay
$370.01
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$117.43
Bull
$559.13
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$117.43
-68.3%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$559.13
+51.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
103.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
33.3%
vs 10.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $379.20 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $117.43 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $379.20 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions