BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
$267.79
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1143.9% above fair value
You pay
$267.79
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$21.53
Bull
$45.38
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$21.53
-92.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$45.38
-83.1%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
10.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
66.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
27.2%
vs 10.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (35 analysts)
$383.30
Divergence from AlphaVal
94%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $21.53 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $383.30 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions