BURL
Burlington Stores, Inc.
$324.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 210.4% above fair value
You pay
$324.51
Bear
$0.00
Fair
$104.55
Bull
$497.86
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$104.55
-67.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$497.86
+53.4%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
92.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $336.25 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $336.25 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions