BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
$83.20
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 18.2% below fair value

You pay $83.20
Bear $87.19
Fair $101.72
Bull $116.25
Bear $87.19 +4.8% $5.09 × 18x P/E
Fair $101.72 +22.3% $5.09 × 21x P/E
Bull $116.25 +39.7% $5.09 × 24x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.83 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.72 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 47%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 97% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples