BUD
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV
$83.20
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.2% below fair value
You pay
$83.20
Bear
$87.19
Fair
$101.72
Bull
$116.25
Bear
$87.19
+4.8%
$5.09 × 18x P/E
Fair
$101.72
+22.3%
$5.09 × 21x P/E
Bull
$116.25
+39.7%
$5.09 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.83 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.72 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 47%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 97% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples