BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
$23.77
Other Commodity Producers
70%
FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 49.1% below fair value
You pay
$23.77
Bear
$26.39
Fair
$46.71
Bull
$72.57
Bear
$26.39
+11.0%
FCF −30% × 8x
Fair
$46.71
+96.5%
Current FCF × 10x
Bull
$72.57
+205.3%
FCF +30% × 12x
Adjust Assumptions
0.0%
10.0x
Key Value Driver
Commodity price outlook and production volume
Implied Market Multiple
5.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (33 analysts)
$30.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Summary
At current commodity prices with a 10x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $46.71 per share. Range: $26.39 to $72.57.
Warnings
Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.
Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.50 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 42% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
- Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
- Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically