BTSGU
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Tangible Equity Unit
$194.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 315.8% above fair value
You pay
$194.06
Bear
$21.44
Fair
$46.67
Bull
$76.90
Bear
$21.44
-89.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$46.67
-76.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$76.90
-60.4%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
118.0x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $46.67 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 37% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions