BTSGU
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Tangible Equity Unit
$197.83
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 191.7% above fair value
You pay
$197.83
Bear
$34.17
Fair
$67.81
Bull
$108.11
Bear
$34.17
-82.7%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$67.81
-65.7%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$108.11
-45.4%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
89.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
31.3%
vs 18.3% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $67.81 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 37% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions