BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
$58.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.3% above fair value
You pay
$58.50
Bear
$22.53
Fair
$49.04
Bull
$80.80
Bear
$22.53
-61.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$49.04
-16.2%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$80.80
+38.1%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
41.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.04 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 37% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions