BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
$62.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 7.3% below fair value
You pay
$62.36
Bear
$33.90
Fair
$67.26
Bull
$107.24
Bear
$33.90
-45.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$67.26
+7.9%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$107.24
+72.0%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.3%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
32.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.4%
vs 18.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$77.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
13%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $67.26 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 37% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions