BTSG
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
$72.46
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 39.4% above fair value
You pay
$72.46
Bear
$24.29
Fair
$51.98
Bull
$85.16
Bear
$24.29
-66.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$51.98
-28.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$85.16
+17.5%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
49.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
23.1%
vs 18.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $72.71 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.98 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 37% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $72.71 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions