BTEGF
Baytex Energy Corp.
$4.05
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.7% below fair value
You pay
$4.05
Bear
$1.76
Fair
$4.58
Bull
$8.35
Bear
$1.76
-56.6%
FCF $204M × 8x
Fair
$4.58
+13.2%
FCF $292M × 11x
Bull
$8.35
+106.4%
FCF $379M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.0x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $4.58 per share. Range: $1.76 (bear) to $8.35 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7030 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential