BTE
Baytex Energy Corp.
$5.50
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.6% above fair value
You pay
$5.50
Bear
$2.81
Fair
$4.76
Bull
$7.35
Bear
$2.81
-48.9%
FCF $189M × 8x
Fair
$4.76
-13.5%
FCF $271M × 11x
Bull
$7.35
+33.6%
FCF $352M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.1x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $4.76 per share. Range: $2.81 (bear) to $7.35 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7136 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential