BTE
Baytex Energy Corp.
$5.15
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.5% above fair value
You pay
$5.15
Bear
$2.17
Fair
$3.47
Bull
$5.20
Bear
$2.17
-57.9%
FCF $125M × 8x
Fair
$3.47
-32.6%
FCF $178M × 11x
Bull
$5.20
+1.1%
FCF $232M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.47 per share. Range: $2.17 (bear) to $5.20 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7244 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential