BTE
Baytex Energy Corp.
$4.01
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.7% above fair value
You pay
$4.01
Bear
$2.20
Fair
$3.53
Bull
$5.29
Bear
$2.20
-45.0%
FCF $122M × 8x
Fair
$3.53
-12.0%
FCF $175M × 11x
Bull
$5.29
+32.0%
FCF $227M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
13.0x
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $3.53 per share. Range: $2.20 (bear) to $5.29 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7093 USD per CAD.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential