BTDR
Bitdeer Technologies Group
$9.63
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.6% above fair value
You pay
$9.63
Bear
$7.56
Fair
$9.03
Bull
$10.50
Bear
$7.56
-21.5%
$0.28 × 27x P/E
Fair
$9.03
-6.2%
$0.28 × 32x P/E
Bull
$10.50
+9.0%
$0.28 × 38x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
32.2x
0.28$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
34.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$20.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.28, the base-case value is $9.03 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $20.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 65% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples