BSY
Bentley Systems, Incorporated
$38.25
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 14.6% below fair value
You pay
$38.25
Bear
$27.84
Fair
$44.80
Bull
$63.35
Bear
$27.84
-27.2%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$44.80
+17.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$63.35
+65.6%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
25.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.3%
vs 14.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$41.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
8%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $44.80 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions