BSY
Bentley Systems, Incorporated
$31.61
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 27.6% below fair value
You pay
$31.61
Bear
$27.09
Fair
$43.65
Bull
$61.76
Bear
$27.09
-14.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$43.65
+38.1%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$61.76
+95.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.5%
vs 14.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.65 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions