BRY
Berry Corporation
$3.26
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 64.4% below fair value
You pay
$3.26
Bear
$2.20
Fair
$9.16
Bull
$18.44
Bear
$2.20
-32.6%
FCF $76M × 8x
Fair
$9.16
+181.0%
FCF $108M × 11x
Bull
$18.44
+465.7%
FCF $140M × 14x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.16 per share.
Warnings
Debt per share ($5.41) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 41% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential