BRY
Berry Corporation
$3.26
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 75.9% below fair value
You pay
$3.26
Bear
$4.23
Fair
$13.53
Bull
$25.92
Bear
$4.23
+29.8%
FCF $94M × 8x
Fair
$13.53
+314.9%
FCF $134M × 11x
Bull
$25.92
+695.1%
FCF $174M × 14x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
11.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$7.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
93%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $13.53 per share. Range: $4.23 (bear) to $25.92 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($5.41) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 93% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential