BRX Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$30.84
Real Estate Investment Trust 85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 32.0% below fair value

You pay $30.84
Bear $36.26
Fair $45.32
Bull $54.40
Bear $36.26 +17.6% $2.61 FFO × 16x
Fair $45.32 +47.0% $2.61 FFO × 20x
Bull $54.40 +76.4% $2.61 FFO × 23x

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.61) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.29 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.32 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.29 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 58% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify