BRX
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$28.12
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.8% below fair value
You pay
$28.12
Bear
$40.73
Fair
$50.91
Bull
$61.09
Bear
$40.73
+44.8%
$2.61 FFO × 16x
Fair
$50.91
+81.0%
$2.61 FFO × 20x
Bull
$61.09
+117.3%
$2.61 FFO × 23x
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.61) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$34.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
At $2.61 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $50.91 per share. Dividend yield: 4.4%. DDM cross-check: $44.29.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.67 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify