BRX
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
$32.30
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.6% below fair value
You pay
$32.30
Bear
$36.71
Fair
$45.88
Bull
$55.06
Bear
$36.71
+13.6%
$2.61 FFO × 16x
Fair
$45.88
+42.0%
$2.61 FFO × 20x
Bull
$55.06
+70.4%
$2.61 FFO × 23x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.61) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.14 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.88 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.14 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify