AlphaMadera

BRSP BrightSpire Capital, Inc.

$3.81

Real Estate Investment Trust 85%

P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 8.2% below fair value

You pay $3.81

Bear $3.51

Fair $4.15

Bull $4.79

Bear $3.51 -7.8% $0.04 FFO × 16x

Fair $4.15 +8.9% $0.04 FFO × 20x

Bull $4.79 +25.6% $0.04 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

19.9x

FFO per Share

0.04$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.04) × default P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 92.9x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (9 analysts) $5.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 17%

Summary

At $0.04 FFO/share with a 20x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $4.15 per share. Dividend yield: 16.8%. DDM cross-check: $11.93.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 16.8% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $11.93 (187% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify